Does a crisis mean all your donors are losing money?

The short answer: no. Every crisis, market crash and natural disaster drives up demand for some businesses. If you only watch the headlines about who is struggling, you might miss the donors who are having their best year.

When wildfires tore through communities in California and Hawaii, my first thoughts were about the destruction: the homes and businesses lost, the damage to the land, and how long it would take to rebuild. As a prospect researcher, though, I also had another question: who is going to be busy now?

After a major wildfire, someone has to remove debris, clear hazardous trees, haul materials, test contaminated soil and rebuild thousands of homes. Are any of those companies on your prospect list? I hope so!

Key Takeaways

• Economic hardship doesn’t hit every donor equally. Some businesses see more demand during a crisis.
• “Countercyclical” businesses don’t just hold steady in a downturn. They grow.
• Follow the money through the supply chain, not just to the obvious winners.
• Crisis windfalls can be temporary, so timing matters.

Countercyclical Isn’t the Same as Recession-Proof

Economists use the term “countercyclical” for businesses whose activity moves opposite to the overall economy. When the economy weakens, their demand can actually go up.

That’s different from being recession-proof. A funeral home may stay fairly steady during a recession. A repossession company, a debt collector or a secondhand retailer may get busier.

This matters for prospect research. If the economy is heading down, not every donor’s finances are going down with it.

What the Pandemic Taught Us

COVID-19 made this vivid. While restaurants, hotels, airlines and many small businesses struggled, other companies saw sales soar.

Vaccine makers, diagnostic labs and producers of masks, gloves and medical supplies were the obvious winners. The list went well beyond healthcare, though:

• Zoom became essential for businesses, schools and nonprofits.
• Netflix and gaming companies like Roblox got a surge of homebound customers.
• Peloton benefited when gyms closed.
• DoorDash and other delivery services saw orders explode.
• Etsy and Shopify rode the shift to online shopping.

Many of these businesses weren’t connected to the virus at all. They benefited because the way people worked, shopped, exercised and entertained themselves changed almost overnight.

There’s another lesson in that list. Several of those companies cooled off once life returned to normal. A crisis windfall is real, but it may not last. If a prospect’s wealth spiked with a crisis, find out how much of it was realized, such as through a stock sale, a company sale or a liquidity event, before you build a capacity estimate on it.

Follow the Money Through the Supply Chain

The biggest opportunities are often one or two steps away from the headline.

A wildfire doesn’t just create work for the homebuilder. It brings work to the demolition contractor, the debris hauler, the heavy-equipment owner, the environmental consultant, the lumber supplier, the architect, the electrician and dozens of other businesses.

A pandemic doesn’t just benefit the vaccine maker. It can also benefit the companies that make the vials and syringes, the cold-storage and logistics providers, and the software companies helping hospitals manage the surge.

I can almost hear you saying “duh!” It does sound obvious once someone points it out. But most of us don’t look at the economy this way when we’re building a prospect list.

The Bottom Line

When a crisis hits, it’s natural to focus on the donors who are struggling. Those of us in prospect research can look past the obvious and follow the economic ripple effects. That’s true whether we’re filling the major gift pipeline or rebalancing a gift officer’s portfolio.

One donor may be weathering a tough season while another is seeing record demand. That second donor may deserve some extra attention while your development officers give the others time to recover.

Wish you had access to more resources on prospecting and trends? You do!

The Prospect Research Institute has lots of resources to help you:

• Become a Research Asset Member! Gain access to over 40 workshops and master classes, upcoming webinars, and connect with other prospect research professionals tackling these same challenges in monthly group coaching calls.
• Buy the Approach to Prospecting book or the course. This teaches you how to build a scorecard, which you can use for internal or external prospecting.
• Check out our prospecting category on Prospect Research #ChatBytes, the Institute’s free podcast.

Originally published 5/19/2010; updated 10/4/2026.